Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Earth Day

As billions of Planet Earth’s human inhabitants lock themselves indoors, sheltering in place to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus that has infected more than 2.6 million people and killed 186,000 worldwide, the devastating pandemic appears to have had a beneficial side effect on the environment.

An estimated two billion people -- one-quarter of the world’s population – have placed themselves in lock-down mode. Concomitant with the ensuing shutdown of heavy industries and factories, China has seen a 50 percent decrease in nitrous oxide and carbon monoxide. Levels of nitrous oxide and carbon monoxide have also dropped sharply in the U.S. due to the near cessation of automobile traffic. Airborne concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in Bergamo, Italy are 47 percent lower than normal; levels in Rome were 26-to-35 percent lower than in 2019; and Milan saw a 50 percent improvement in air quality. With most airplanes grounded, another pollutant has been curtailed. The murky waters of Venice’s canals are now so clear a jellyfish could be filmed swimming in them. Los Angeles skies are clear now, as are those surrounding the Himalayan Mountains. Maybe damage to the Amazon Rainforest can be reversed as it enjoys a respite from mankind’s deforestation. Perhaps the drop in greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming enough to give us a chance to reverse that, as well.

All of which started me thinking: What if the coronavirus isn’t really a virus, after all? What if COVID-19 is actually an antibody? Mankind has inflicted enormous damage on the Earth’s ecosystem in the past century. We have polluted the air, the oceans, and the land; deforested the rainforests; and even shaken the planet’s core with fracking. To the ecosystem, mankind has become a harmful invading virus. Perhaps like any other biological entity, the Earth’s ecosystem has unleashed antibodies – COVID-19 – to destroy the harmful human virus attacking it.

It makes sense: nature unleashing her antibodies to save the planet from the human pestilence that is destroying it. A world with significantly fewer humans would result in a healthier ecosystem. After all, a healthy patient is the result of antibodies defeating a virus. Maybe we’ve been looking at COVID-19 all wrong.

With the 50th anniversary of Earth Day today, this would be a good time to reflect on what mankind can, and must, do to ameliorate the damage it has inflicted on the planet. Not only because we need a healthy planet to live on but also because if we continue destroying it, the planet may realize it doesn’t need us.

Saturday, April 18, 2020

Barnes & Noble is Now Accepting Pre-orders

Barnes & Noble is now accepting pre-orders for the Justin Tyme paperback! Order your copy today!

Justin Tyme  –  Just published! Finally! No pun intended but this has been a long time in the making. I started writing Justin Tyme 10 years ago and it's finally published. You can download your Kindle ebook now or order the paperback edition from Amazon or Barnes & Noble. I think it's fair to say you've never read a time travel story like this.



Justin Tyme: Impulsive, brilliant, protégé, physicist. He's the brains.

Elizabeth Madison: Martial arts fighter, polyglot, government agent. She's the brawn.

Together they'll make history…  while hopefully not changing it.



When the government pulls the plug on Dr. Daniel Spencer's Top Secret time travel project his brilliant young protégé, physicist Justin Tyme, impetuously sends himself into the timestream to prove Project Chronos' viability, undeterred by the fact they haven't yet figured out how to return a chrononaut safely. Fearing the brash scientist might inadvertently change the past, the Defense Department sends agent Elizabeth Madison to join Justin Tyme as his time-traveling companion. She's perfect for the job: she speaks 15 languages and is skilled in hand-to-hand combat.Elizabeth is proficient in judo, karate, jujitsu, aikido, kendo, tae kwon do, and wushu, the shaolin form of Chinese kung fu. Now Elizabeth must keep Justin Tyme out of trouble and prevent him from altering history – even if that means terminating him.




Note to Bloggers: E-mail me if you'd like to interview me about Justin Tyme for your blog.

Friday, April 17, 2020

Together they'll make history… while hopefully not changing it!

Justin Tyme  –  Just published! Finally! No pun intended but this has been a long time in the making. I started writing Justin Tyme 10 years ago and it's finally published. You can download your Kindle ebook now or order the paperback edition. I think it's fair to say you've never read a time travel story like this.



Justin Tyme: Impulsive, brilliant, protégé, physicist. He's the brains.

Elizabeth Madison: Martial arts fighter, polyglot, government agent. She's the brawn.

Together they'll make history…  while hopefully not changing it.



When the government pulls the plug on Dr. Daniel Spencer's Top Secret time travel project his brilliant young protégé, physicist Justin Tyme, impetuously sends himself into the timestream to prove Project Chronos' viability, undeterred by the fact they haven't yet figured out how to return a chrononaut safely. Fearing the brash scientist might inadvertently change the past, the Defense Department sends agent Elizabeth Madison to join Justin Tyme as his time-traveling companion. She's perfect for the job: she speaks 15 languages and is skilled in hand-to-hand combat.Elizabeth is proficient in judo, karate, jujitsu, aikido, kendo, tae kwon do, and wushu, the shaolin form of Chinese kung fu. Now Elizabeth must keep Justin Tyme out of trouble and prevent him from altering history – even if that means terminating him.




Note to Bloggers: E-mail me if you'd like to interview me about Justin Tyme for your blog.

Sunday, April 5, 2020

We Interrupt This Blog for an Important Message

Twice a day, I provide a service to my friends on my private Facebook page, updating them with the latest Covid-19 numbers and my interpretation of them. As a public service, I’m sharing today’s post with you on my blog. This is obviously off-the-cuff so please forgive the typos. It’s just a quickie summary to keep people informed. Bottom line: Please take Covid-19 seriously. Stay home. Wear a mask if you go out. Stay safe.

**                **                 ** 


Good morning. Lots of important info so I encourage you to read this update fully.

April 5, 2020: We now have 1.2 million Covid-19 cases worldwide. I'm now rounding the numbers since they're so large. It's actually 1,202,777 people infected but we're going to round it down. Only three weeks ago, those 2,777 cases would have mattered statistically; not now. Of course, they still matter on a human level: they're someone's aunt, uncle, sister, brother, best friend, co-worker, mother, father, son, daughter, grandparent. But for the rest of us, they're data rounded to the nearest decimal. So let's go with 1.2 million.

Except 1.2 million is not an accurate number. It turns out the NSA has revealed the Chinese, once again, were lying to the world. They lied about the start of the pandemic and they're lying about their numbers. Don't necessarily blame the Chinese government this time: Local Chinese officials have lied to the Chinese government about the number of infections and deaths fearing they would be blamed for them. The truth is always the first casualty in war. So that 80,000 China case figure could be 800,000. The death toll is likely many times higher than what has been stated. China claims the virus is under control and diminishing. Fact: They don't even know their own numbers, and wouldn't reveal them if they did. Let's extrapolate: We expect 80% of any population to be infected (including many asymptomatic who thus do not appear to be infected). China's population in 2019 was 1.435 billion. That means 1.148 billion Chinese infected with Covid-19. Probably more due to poor sanitary conditions (remember, this began in Wuhan, China’s unsanitary “wet markets” where Chinese buy bats and other live animals to eat), no initial testing or tracking of those testing positive, and a government that not only downplayed the virus and arrested Dr. Li Wenliang, the doctor who brought it to light (he died from the virus). But let's go with 1.148 billion Chinese infected anyway. Assume an average 3.5% morbidity rate (it varies by many factors that differ by a country's demographic make-up -- Italy, with a high proportion of elderly will have a much higher morbidity rate, but we'll use an average for this example). That comes to an ultimate death toll in China of 40.1 million by the end of the pandemic. An enormous number, but still only a fraction of China's 1.435 billion population.

Worldwide infections (I'm not using the word cases anymore as it confuses people) are 1.2 million and rising. The US has topped 311,635. Spain and Italy are about 125,000 each. Total US deaths today at 8.454. Only Spain (11,947) and Italy (15,362)  have more Covid-19 deaths.

The only country with exceptionally high recovery numbers is China and the NSA says China has made up their numbers so we won't be counting them. So, 1.2 million infections and only 169 thousand people have recovered. Not good.

The US has nearly 300k of the nearly 900k active cases. That's 1/3 of the entire world's active cases. Stop and let that sink in. The next highest nation has 88k.

The US and France have the highest number of critical (near-death) cases - almost 7,000 - nearly double the next highest nations.

That  US "Deaths per 1 million" number I told you to watch when it was 1, and, 2, and 3, and 4 and climbing? Today it's 26. This is an epidemic out of control. Mitigation efforts have not been applied in a timely manner and emergency production of essential supplies has not occurred. I extrapolate that number will be 260 by next week.

We have two new and very important columns in the chart : "Total tests" and "Tests per million". The US has done a whopping 1.6 million tests -- but in a population of 320 million, that's nothing.  (4,933 people out of a million). That's half of one percent. 99.5% of America remains untested! Stop. Let that sink in.

If 99.5% of America remains untested how many Americans have the virus? We don't know. No clue. We have to guestimate. Epidemiologists suggest 80% have or will have the virus. That's 4 out of 5 Americans. Some are asymptomatic and don't realize they have it. Those are carriers. Some have a mild case like the flu. Some are suffering. Some have been hospitalized. Some have died. And a few have recovered.

Eighty percent of 320 million is 256 million infected Americans. Wear a mask. Better yet, stay home. The official 311,635 figure is misleading. Try 256 million instead. Then act accordingly.

One of the most important factors -- and unanswered questions -- is How much of the increase in reported cases is due to exponential spread of the disease versus how much is due to pre-existing cases only now being reported due to increased testing? Despite the rising numbers, we still do not know the true rate of infection.

Of course, we could try to extrapolate from the death figures, but since the disease has a two-week incubation period, any calculation derived will be a lagging indicator-- and a two week lag renders it practically useless.

Saturday, April 4, 2020

Time Travel Will Never Be The Same!

Justin Tyme  –  Now available for pre-order! Finally! No pun intended but this has been a long time in the making. I started writing Justin Tyme 10 years ago and it's finally about to be published. You can show your support for the project by pre-ordering the Kindle ebook now. There will be a paperback edition and about 90 days later the EPUB edition will be available. I think it's fair to say you've never read a time travel story like this.



Justin Tyme: Impulsive, brilliant, protégé, physicist. He's the brains.

Elizabeth Madison: Martial arts fighter, polyglot, government agent. She's the brawn.

Together they'll make history…  while hopefully not changing it.



When the government pulls the plug on Dr. Daniel Spencer's Top Secret time travel project his brilliant young protégé, physicist Justin Tyme, impetuously sends himself into the timestream to prove Project Chronos' viability, undeterred by the fact they haven't yet figured out how to return a chrononaut safely. Fearing the brash scientist might inadvertently change the past, the Defense Department sends agent Elizabeth Madison to join Justin Tyme as his time-traveling companion. She's perfect for the job: she speaks 15 languages and is skilled in hand-to-hand combat.Elizabeth is proficient in judo, karate, jujitsu, aikido, kendo, tae kwon do, and wushu, the shaolin form of Chinese kung fu. Now Elizabeth must keep Justin Tyme out of trouble and prevent him from altering history – even if that means terminating him.




Note to Bloggers: E-mail me if you'd like to interview me about Justin Tyme for your blog.

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

A Horse of a Different Color

I looked back over my blog posts and realized I haven’t written about my friend Stallion lately. It’s not that I’ve forgotten about him since our mutual writers group broke up; it’s just that I’ve, well, I haven’t remembered him lately. I’ve been busy writing several novels, editing, publishing, and distracted by a host of personal matters. Yet it’s wrong to neglect a friendship, especially in the midst of this devastating coronavirus affecting all of us, so I reached out to him. By phone, of course, since social distancing and quarantine preclude face-to-face meetings these days.

He sounded genuinely pleased to hear from me. We exchanged initial pleasantries and turned to the topic everyone is talking about: The Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic and its effects on society.

Me: “I’ve been locked inside the house for four weeks now. No socializing, no parties… Not even my regular trip to the gym.”

Stallion: “It’s only temporary. Eventually you’ll be out and about again.”

Me: “It doesn’t feel like it. I’m going stir crazy. Four whole weeks! I have cabin fever. I haven’t seen any of my friends. All I see is the inside of the house, day and night. People don’t come over anymore. I can’t go to their houses, either.”

Stallion: “It’s only been a few weeks.”

Me: “A few weeks? It’s a month already! I’ve forgotten what restaurants look like. Everything is closed! I’m depressed and lonely. I haven’t showered in days. I don’t even bother getting dressed. I sleep at all hours. The solitude… The loneliness… I have no quality of life anymore. I don’t know how much more of this suffering I can take.”

Stallion: “I understand. I miss our weekly writing group meetings too. It was one of the few times I was able to leave home and socialize.”

Me (frowning): “What do you mean?”

Stallion: “Well, you know I’m disabled. It’s more difficult for me to get out and socialize.”

I cocked my head. “I didn’t know that. I’ve known you for years and you’re not blind or in a wheelchair. You don’t look disabled.”

Stallion: “And you don’t look stupid but obviously appearances can be deceiving. There are lots of people you know with hidden disabilities you can’t see.”

I gulped, duly chastened. I decided not to inquire further and simply accept what he had said.

Stallion: “How long have you known me?”

Me: “At least a dozen years, since you’ve been coming to our local meetings.”

Stallion nodded. “The ones around the corner from my house. I don’t go out much farther. I spend almost all my time at home because of my health condition.”

I gradually absorbed what he was saying. “How long have you been disabled?”

Stallion: “A bit more than twenty years. Stuck at home, just as I am now. I always looked forward to our group meetings as a chance to get out of the house and meet people.”

Me: “But surely your friends visited you in-between?”

Stallion: “Have you ever been to my house during the twelve years you’ve known me?”

I bit my lip as my mind flashed back through the years. “Well, I suppose not but…”

Stallion: “Don’t feel bad, no one else in our group has either – or any of my other friends, for that matter. Out of sight, out of mind. Like the aging relative packed off to a retirement home who you send Christmas cards to once a year.”

It started sinking in. “No one comes by? Not for dinner or to watch a movie on TV or anything?”

Stallion: “Imagine being in coronavirus quarantine; only not for four weeks but for twenty years. Solitude, loneliness; the constant silence becomes surreal. I use the TV for background noise. Some of the television characters are the only regular visitors to my home. I’ve begun seeing them as real people as I’m drawn into their make-believe lives on the small screen. It’s sort of like seeing what my friends are up to every day.”

Me: “That’s awful. Isolation is pulling you away from reality.”

Stallion: “Or it’s become my new reality. It’s my window into the outside world: to live vicariously through fictional TV characters who are leading the life I can’t outside these four walls.”

Me: “When this quarantine is all over, you need to start going out. At least, treat yourself to a nice dinner at a fancy restaurant and a movie in a theater with other people.”

Stallion: “I can’t afford those luxuries.”

I thought about how hard it was going to be to pay my monthly expenses and live on the one-time $1200 stimulus check the government would be sending me for a month of coronavirus pandemic loss of income. I certainly wouldn’t have anything left over for a celebratory champagne dinner. “I know, even if we could go outside, our stimulus checks him him won’t even cover the basics but in a month or two when this is over…”

Stallion: “You still don’t understand. I live on a disability check. I get $1300 a month: that has to cover food, medicine, rent, utilities, insurance, doctor visits… Even if I could physically handle an active social life like you, there’s no way I could afford it. Can you imagine living on $1300 a month for twenty years?”

I couldn’t live on $1200 or even $1300 a week, let alone a month. I thought about how my friends and I had been griping about our four-week ordeal. I tried to imagine it stretching out for the next twenty years. My instinct was to head over to see Stallion in person but then I remembered the stay-in-place shelter order. Not now, I told myself, but after the quarantine is lifted I’ll never forget this ever-present feeling of isolation and loneliness we’re all going through. I’ll make it up to Stallion. When things return to normal, I’ll make an effort to be a better friend, reach out to him more often, spend time visiting him and…

I stopped myself. That wasn’t going to happen. When things returned to normal, the horrible feeling of isolation and loneliness will be a distant memory. I’ll be inundated with work and lost time to make up. I’ll be busier than ever as life returns to the way it was. I’ll be doing all the things I used to do, the things I miss now, the things I love. Of course, there’ll be times I think of Stallion and I’ll call to see how he’s doing. “We’ll have to get together sometime,” I’ll say, and I’ll truly mean it when I utter the words. But days will pass and then weeks. You know how it is.

One day, eventually, the pandemic will end and life will return to normal. The daily routine of our lives will replace this lockdown and the mentality it brings with it. At least, for most of us. For a brief period, we’ve experienced life as the Stallions of the world know it. But unlike them, we’ll be released from this purgatory. The disabled, the elderly, the friends we don’t know as well as we think we do, and all the other shut-ins will not; and their silent suffering will not diminish, as ours does, along with our newfound empathy.